December 2015, Paris. Almost 200 countries agree on something that had seemed impossible: to keep global warming well below 2°C and to try to hold it to 1.5°C. Ten years on, the question is unavoidable: has anything really changed for CO₂ emissions, or did the Paris Agreement stay a nice signature on paper?
The honest answer is "both". Let's look at what it achieved, where it falls short, and why it directly affects your electricity bill, your business and the way we heat our homes.
The Paris Agreement at a glance
- Adopted: December 2015 at COP21, in force since November 2016.
- Temperature goal: well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing 1.5°C.
- National plans (NDCs): each country sets its own targets and strengthens them every five years.
- Transparency: common rules for tracking and reporting emissions.
- Global Stocktake: a review of collective progress every five years.
How it works: Nationally Determined Contributions
Paris's big innovation was its bottom-up approach. Instead of imposing one target on everyone, each country submits its own Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). It's essentially a public plan for how much it will cut emissions and how. The rule is that every new plan must be more ambitious than the last.
The upside? Almost everyone takes part. The downside? The sum of national pledges isn't enough. UN Environment Programme reports show that current policies put the planet on track for around 3°C of warming this century. That's a long way from 1.5°C.
What the first ten years show
- Good news: before 2015, projections pointed to even higher warming. The policies that followed have bent the curve.
- Good news: renewables have become the cheapest source of new electricity in most markets.
- Bad news: global CO₂ emissions have not yet started a steady decline.
- Warning sign: 2024 was the first calendar year with an average temperature more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. A single year doesn't mean the goal is lost, because the agreement refers to a long-term average. It is a clear warning, though.
To see which countries make the biggest difference, explore our interactive map of CO₂ emissions by country.
From Glasgow to Dubai: how the agreement evolved
The agreement hasn't stood still. The first Global Stocktake concluded at COP28 in Dubai in 2023. For the first time, countries agreed on a text calling for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. They also agreed to triple renewable capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030.
In 2025, countries were asked to submit a new generation of plans ("NDC 3.0") looking ahead to 2035. Geopolitics matters, though: the United States announced its withdrawal from the agreement again in 2025. That puts even more of the leadership burden on Europe, China and emerging economies.
Carbon markets after Paris: Article 6
Article 6 is the most market-oriented part of the agreement. It allows countries to cooperate and trade emission reductions:
- Article 6.2: bilateral deals. One country funds emission-reduction projects in another and transfers part of the results towards its own targets.
- Article 6.4: a central, UN-supervised crediting mechanism that issues credits for projects worldwide. Its core rules were finalised at COP29 in Baku in 2024.
The key issue is avoiding double counting: the same reduction can't count for both the selling and the buying country. Without strict rules, carbon markets risk becoming an accounting trick instead of a real solution.
Compliance and voluntary markets
Compliance markets, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), set a cap and a price on carbon. The European model has become a blueprint, and China now runs its own national trading system, the world's largest by emissions covered.
In voluntary markets, companies buy credits to offset their emissions. This market grew after Paris but has faced strong criticism over low-quality projects. The rule for any serious business: reduce first, and offset only what you genuinely can't cut yet.
Putting a price on carbon
To deliver their NDCs, more and more countries are pricing emissions, either through a carbon tax or an emissions trading system. According to the World Bank, roughly a quarter of global emissions are now covered by some form of carbon pricing, far more than before 2015.
The logic is simple: when pollution costs money, clean investments pay off sooner. That's why the EU is extending carbon pricing to heating and road fuels (ETS2) and introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for imported goods. Read more in our article on the cost and social impacts of carbon pricing.
Europe and Greece on the road from Paris
The EU turned the agreement into binding law. The European Climate Law requires net emissions to fall by at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990, and climate neutrality by 2050.
Greece followed with its National Climate Law (Law 4936/2022), which sets emission cuts of 55% by 2030 and 80% by 2040, and climate neutrality by 2050. In practice, that means:
- a lignite phase-out in power generation,
- rapid growth of solar and wind power,
- home energy upgrade programmes,
- a shift away from oil boilers towards heat pumps.
What it means for business
The Paris Agreement gave the business world a common language: tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e). Banks, investors and large customers now ask suppliers for data on their carbon footprint. More and more companies set targets validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).
Three practical steps for any company:
- Measure your carbon footprint (Scope 1, 2 and 3) using a recognised methodology.
- Reduce where it's cheapest first: energy efficiency, rooftop solar for self-consumption, fleet electrification.
- Benchmark your performance against your sector with carbon benchmarking and report it transparently.
The challenges that remain
- The ambition gap: current plans aren't enough for 1.5°C. To keep the goal alive, emissions must fall sharply this decade.
- Finance: developing countries need far more capital for clean energy and adaptation.
- Carbon market integrity: without strict certification, credits lose their value.
- Political instability: withdrawals and changes of government delay investment.
To see the biggest emitters in more detail, read about the top global CO₂ sources and their impacts.
The takeaway
The Paris Agreement didn't solve the climate crisis, and it never could have. But it did something just as important: it brought the whole world to the same table, set common rules for measuring progress and sent markets a clear signal that the future is low-carbon. How fast we get there now depends on the decisions of governments, businesses and all of us.
Do you think the 1.5°C goal is still within reach? Share this article along with your view, and for terms like NDC, CO₂e or ITMO, check our CO₂ Term Glossary.