Analysis of Regulation (EU) 2019/631, Incentives, and Technological Innovations for 2030 and Beyond
The European Union, aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, has established one of the world’s strictest and most innovative legislative frameworks to reduce CO₂ emissions in road transport. Regulation (EU) 2019/631, which came into force in January 2020 and is regularly updated, provides the primary legal basis for setting CO₂ emission standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
1. Legal Framework and Objectives of Regulation (EU) 2019/631
This Regulation replaces previous rules and sets specific emission limits for each manufacturer, aligning with the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal commitments.
1.1. Emission Reduction Targets
By 2030:
A 55% reduction in average CO₂ emissions for new passenger cars compared to 2021 levels.
A 50% reduction for new light commercial vehicles compared to 2021 levels.
By 2035:
All newly registered passenger cars and light commercial vehicles must have zero CO₂ emissions, effectively phasing out conventional internal combustion engine models.
1.2. Compliance and Enforcement Mechanisms
Each Member State must submit verified emission data to the European Commission, which assesses compliance and publishes biennial progress reports. Manufacturers exceeding targets face fines of €95 per gram of CO₂ over the limit per vehicle.
2. Incentives for Zero- and Low-Emission Vehicles (ZLEV)
Rather than relying solely on penalties, Regulation (EU) 2019/631 introduces a reward system to encourage production and sales of zero- and low-emission vehicles.
2.1. ZLEV Credit Mechanism (2025–2029)
If a manufacturer’s annual ZLEV sales share exceeds 25% for passenger cars or 17% for light commercial vehicles, the manufacturer benefits from more lenient CO₂ targets.
From 2030 onward, the ZLEV credit mechanism is phased out, as the market is expected to have largely transitioned to zero-emission vehicles.
This mechanism incentivizes rapid adoption of electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles while maintaining pressure for continuous improvement.
3. Technological Innovations and Supporting Measures
Achieving the Regulation’s targets requires significant technological shifts in the automotive industry, with a focus on electrification, efficiency, and digitalization.
3.1. Electrification and Battery Development
The European Battery Alliance coordinates investments and research to strengthen Europe’s battery value chain and reduce dependency on imports.
Projects under the Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI) “European Battery Innovation” will provide €2.9 billion in public support for battery R&D through 2027.
Development of next-generation, high-energy-density, fully recyclable solid-state batteries.
3.2. Digitalization and Automated Driving
Initiatives in Connected and Automated Mobility (CAM) support V2X (vehicle-to-everything) communications, AI-driven autonomy, and fleet management systems to optimize energy use and lower emissions.
Government-backed testbeds and pilot projects accelerate software development and deployment of intelligent transport systems.
3.3. Eco-Innovations
Manufacturers can earn up to 7 g CO₂/km of credit for innovative technologies not captured in standard WLTP tests, such as heat pumps, photovoltaic panels on vehicle roofs, and energy recovery systems.
4. Challenges and Regulatory Adaptations
4.1. Transitional Flexibility (2025–2027)
To address supply chain disruptions and raw material shortages, the Commission will introduce temporary flexibility in compliance calculations for the years 2025–2027, ensuring realistic application of targets without undermining long-term ambition.
4.2. Review and Evaluation
Formal reviews are scheduled for 2025 and 2026 to integrate technological advances and economic developments, ensuring the framework remains effective and achievable.
5. Impacts on Industry and Consumers
5.1. Industrial Transformation
Major European manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Renault are investing heavily in electrification, R&D centers, and new production facilities to maintain global competitiveness.
5.2. Cost and Accessibility for Consumers
Economies of scale and falling battery costs are expected to bring electric vehicle prices in line with internal combustion models by 2027. National purchase incentives (bonus-malus schemes) and expanded charging infrastructure will further drive consumer adoption.
5.3. Social and Environmental Benefits
Reducing transport-related CO₂ emissions will improve urban air quality, lower public health risks, and contribute significantly to the EU’s overall climate targets.
6. Conclusions and Outlook to 2030 and Beyond
Regulation (EU) 2019/631, together with the “Fit for 55” package, positions Europe at the forefront of the global transition to sustainable mobility. Its success depends on:
Rapid industrial uptake of innovative technologies.
A fair transition supporting workers and regions affected by decarbonization.
Economic viability and accessibility of zero-emission solutions for consumers.
Expansion of green infrastructure and supply chains.
With ongoing reviews and built‑in flexibility, the EU remains equipped to balance ambitious climate goals with practical challenges, steering road transport toward a zero‑emission future by 2050.
“We are committed to the 2035 target, as well as those for 2025 and 2030,” said the Commissioner for Transport, underscoring the EU’s resolve to lead in green innovation and sustainable mobility.
The coming decade will determine whether Europe sustains its pioneering role in climate-smart transportation or must reassess its ambitions. The legislative framework is in place—now the challenge lies in its full implementation.